Analytics
 What we do when we say we use it Attwater
Consulting solves engineering, asset management/productivity, and risk
assessment problems using advanced analytics
methods and approaches.
When Attwater Consulting uses
the term advanced
analytics to solve your problem and enable you to make quick,
comfortable (consistent with decision maker heuristics), and effective decisions, here is
what we do.
1)
Before anything else, Attwater Consulting fully analyzes the problem
that the client needs to solve.
The problems
faced in technical businesses can be very complex. Attwater Consulting
listens very carefully to the client describe their problem, and asks pointedly relevant
questions about all aspects of their problem to understand it fully. We scope the
problem to assure that we understand the problem's boundaries
and interfaces, identify the measures that will make good decision discriminators,
and understand the data and information that is available and
that which might be useful. We fully review and validate this
problem analysis with the client to assure that there is nothing
that we missed in our problem analysis, that we did it right, and to absolutely assure
that we will not commit a Type III error: getting the right answer to the wrong
question.
2) For
the client's particular problem, Attwater
Consulting starts with the laws
of physics, mathematics, probability and statistics, information
theory, and decision
analysis and rigorously derives the equations that are needed to solve the
client's problem.
Attwater Consulting
assures that the client will never make a decision based on simple correlation in
the data instead of a real causality. We derive the quantitative measures
that will be the best decision discriminators for the problems the client needs to solve, and how to best
use the available data and information to develop those
measures.
3)
Attwater Consulting neither makes nor uses any assumptions about the
client's problem, or in development of its solution.
Attwater Consulting uses
modern information theoretical methods to replace assumptions
with objectivity. By not using any assumptions in the
problem analysis or equations or codes we develop, maintaining maximal objectivity
in the results, we assure that any decisions made by the client will
not be subject to second guessing. Also, there can be no reanalysis if someone
questions or wants to change assumptions that are not used.
4)
Attwater Consulting uses ALL
of the data and quantifiable information that the client can
possibly provide about their problem in our calculations.
Many canned software
packages use approaches that are mathematically unable to use all of the data
types and information that may be available; data and
information like experts'
opinions and observations, and many types of censored data (that
the system has not failed, or that it was found failed on
inspection). The advanced analytics methods that Attwater Consulting uses
employ every single bit of
quantifiable relevant data and information that is available, and can
recommend data types to be collected in the future that will make a huge
difference for similar problems.
5)
Attwater Consulting develops, fully validates, and runs the unique computer codes needed to
solve the derived equations transforming
the client's data and information into the quantitative measures needed for
good decision making.
Every
problem is unique, and has unique data and information.
There is just no onesizefitsall canned computer code that can
provide the measures to make all good management decisions, or
even any particular class of decisions such as for asset
management or risk. Attwater Consulting builds the computer codes
necessary to solve the equations that we derive from first principles
that will produce the best quantitative results.
We validate those codes by using test data generated from
various artificial "truth" solutions, both good and bad
"truth" solutions to
cover the spectrum of possible results using the client's actual
data. Running these validated codes using the client's
actual data and information produces measures of how sure the
client can be that the decision they make will produce the
effect they hope to achieve.
6) We
report the accuracy bounds on our calculations.
Every
computer code that processes data uses
numerical methods to obtain solutions to equations. Every
numerical method ever invented approximates the true solution to
an equation, and will be subject to an inherent numerical method
approximation error which is usually unknown, but may be bounded. Attwater Consulting has developed methods to
quantify and bound the numerical method errors in analytics. We report the bounds on the numerical method
errors in our results.
Without knowing the bounds on the numerical method errors, a client can
unknowingly make a bad decision. Knowing the bounds on the
numerical method errors, the client can either make a quick,
comfortable, effective decision, or discover that more data is needed.
The Attwater
Consulting Advanced Analytics Toolbox
Attwater
Consulting has collected a huge analytics toolbox over the past 40 years,
full of proven and well understood methods collected from a wide
variety of business and technical problem arenas. Due to our
diligence in steps 1) and 2) in our practice of advanced
analytics,
we have the insight to recognize that methods invented to solve unique
problems in some very unique arenas can often be used to solve vastly
different problems in vastly different arenas. Here are a couple
of examples of this insight: we applied analytics techniques
developed for sonar signal processing to analyze rocket motor vibrations
due to a new rocket fuel to assure a safe launch; and, we applied
analytics techniques developed for reliability calculations for
mechanical systems to analyze astronaut bone fracture risks for long
duration space missions. We see uses for analytics tools in solving problems
that simply escape others.
Three very
important methods in the Attwater Consulting analytics toolbox, rarely
used in the practice of analytics, are: 1) the information theoretical
models of objectivity that we use to replace assumptions with
objectivity; 2) Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that we use to
integrate very complex high dimensional equations; and, 3) methods to
bound the numerical method errors in analytics calculations.
Attwater Consulting stands apart in the application of advanced
analytics
to solve your problems.
Sounds
Expensive and Time Consuming, but Attwater Consulting Advanced Analytics
are Not!
Attwater
Consulting has mastered the advanced
analytics
approach outlined above, we practice it and teach it frequently, and as such
perform it very efficiently. Since we have virtually no reanalysis
or rework due to the comprehensive understanding of the problem and
first principle derivations of the solutions, and due to our avoidance
of using assumptions, the very quick, comfortable, and effective bottom
line decisions that result start saving the client money almost
immediately. The rather complex problems we solved using our
advanced analytics approach that were described in some of our papers
rarely took more than four hours of work.
Attwater
Consultants use advanced analytics to obtain quantified solutions that
truly enable quick, comfortable, and effective client bottom line
decisions. Our approaches and toolbox for advanced analytics is expansive and
comprehensive. Contact
Us for more information on how an Attwater Consultant can apply
our version of advanced analytics to solve your problems. We selectively accept short term and long
term assignments all over the world; language used is English.
